Methodology

The terminal uses the published 2026-27 fiscal plan as its base case. Each input is compared with its base assumption, then multiplied by the relevant sensitivity factor.

The modeled balance equals the base balance plus the combined estimated impacts from WTI, the light-heavy differential, USD/CAD, natural gas, long-term interest rates, and the income proxy.

Live mode refreshes available public market and macro inputs through server-side API routes. Manual mode lets users override any input for scenario testing.

If a live source is unavailable or stale, the terminal keeps the manual controls available so the model remains usable.

The historical series applies the same deterministic model to monthly source data where available.

Some slower-moving data series are carried forward until a new observation is released. The selected-month detail panel identifies carried-forward values.

The model is a sensitivity tool, not a full intrayear government cash model. It does not forecast every revenue line, department expense, accounting adjustment, or policy change.

Fiscal-year-to-date projections are currently straight-lined across the selected fiscal period until seasonal fiscal weights are added.