WTI oil price
the U.S. benchmark crude price
US$/bbl
+$0.68B per $1• $0.00B vs budget
Drag to see the swing →
Scenario: Budget anchor
See how oil, the dollar & rates move Alberta's bottom line.
Drag any of the six levers below. How far the province's modeled balance sits from the 2026–27 budget updates as you move.
$0.00B
better than the budget plan
Break-even WTI
$74.3
oil price to balance
Modeled balance
−$9.37B
modeled deficit
The six levers, ranked by impact
each card shows its live push on the balance →Loading
Light-heavy differential
the discount on Alberta's heavier oil
US$/bbl spread
-$0.67B per $1 wider• $0.00B vs budget
Exchange rate
the loonie against the U.S. dollar
US¢ per C$
-$0.44B per 1¢ stronger• $0.00B vs budget
Bond yield
long-term government borrowing cost
10-year Canada
-$0.442B per 1 pt• $0.00B vs budget
Income growth
wage growth that feeds income tax
tax-base proxy
+$0.25B per 1 pt• $0.00B vs budget
Natural gas
Alberta's benchmark gas price
C$/GJ
+$0.15B per $1• $0.00B vs budget
What's driving the gap
Right now the biggest mover is WTI $0.00B versus the budget anchor. Bars to the right add to the balance; bars to the left subtract from it.
WTI oil
$0.00B
Oil differential
$0.00B
Exchange rate
$0.00B
Bond yield
$0.00B
Income growth
$0.00B
Natural gas
$0.00B
Historical Estimate
Fiscal Position Since 2025
Historical source data is still sparse, so the estimated fiscal-position series is not available yet.
Market Engine
Balance Curve
Current balance
Variance vs budget $0.00B
$-9.37B
Budget anchor
WTI sensitivity +$0.68B per $1
$60.50
Last refresh
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Actuals Desk
Fiscal Year To Date
Actual vs model
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Enter published revenue and expense to compare actuals.
Revenue
Actual / projected / variance
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$18.64B
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Expense
Actual / projected / variance
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$20.98B
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Balance
Actual / projected / variance
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$-2.34B
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Projection is straight-lined to the selected fiscal period from the current annual scenario.
Scenario Comparison
Saved Cases
Save the current scenario to compare it against other presets or manual cases.
Pro tools — feeds, sources & methodexpand ↓collapse ↑
Feed health
WTI oil price
$60.50 · Loading
Light-heavy differential
$13.00 · Loading
Exchange rate
73.00¢ · Loading
Bond yield
3.20% · Loading
Income growth
4.10% · Loading
Natural gas
$3.00 · Loading
Model basis & sources
Base case is the published 2026–27 fiscal plan: $74.55B revenue, $83.92B expense, including $2.00B contingency, and a −$9.37B starting balance. Live WTI, the light-heavy spread, FX, gas, the 10-year yield, and an earnings-based tax proxy shift the modeled balance around that anchor.
Independent public-interest scenario model — not an official Government of Alberta forecast.
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