Alberta Fiscal Terminal

Alberta's 2026 Budget Sensitivities.

Combining a blend of live market inputs with the government's 2026–27 fiscal model.

Balance
$-9.37B
Modeled deficit
Break-even WTI
$74.3
Dynamic fiscal threshold
Live inputs
0
0 live inputs active
WTI
Unavailable
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Waiting for first live refresh
Light-heavy
Unavailable
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Waiting for first live refresh
USD/CAD
Unavailable
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Waiting for first live refresh
Nat gas
Unavailable
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Waiting for first live refresh
10Y
Unavailable
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Waiting for first live refresh
Income proxy
Unavailable
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Waiting for first live refresh
Scenario Desk
Input Controls
Scenario presets
Active preset: Custom scenario
WTI oil (US$/bbl)
Main revenue lever. Each +$1 WTI adds about $0.68B to the 2026–27 balance.
Unavailable
60.50
40110
Light-heavy differential (US$/bbl)
A wider differential hurts the balance.
Unavailable
13.00
820
Exchange rate (US¢ per C$)
A stronger Canadian dollar reduces the modeled balance.
Unavailable
73.00¢
68¢78¢
Natural gas (C$/GJ)
Smaller lever, but directionally positive when gas rises.
Unavailable
3.00
1.55
10-year Canada bond (%)
Higher rates raise debt servicing pressure.
Unavailable
3.20%
2%5.5%
Primary household income growth (%)
Live mode uses Alberta average weekly earnings growth as a tax-base proxy.
Unavailable
4.10%
2%7%
Historical Estimate
Fiscal Position Since 2025
Historical source data is still sparse, so the estimated fiscal-position series is not available yet.
Attribution
Impact Ladder
Loading contribution chart...
Market Engine
Balance Curve
Current balance
Variance vs budget $0.00B
$-9.37B
Budget anchor
WTI sensitivity +$0.68B per $1
$60.50
Last refresh
0 live inputs active
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Loading balance chart...
Scenario Comparison
Saved Cases
Save the current scenario to compare it against other presets or manual cases.
Overview
Fiscal State
Current fiscal print
$-9.37B
Modeled deficitBudget year 2026–27
Revenue base
Budget 2026–27 total revenue
$74.55B
Expense base
Includes $2.00B contingency
$83.92B
Base deficit
Starting budget balance assumption
$-9.37B
WTI sensitivity
Per $1 move in WTI
+$0.68B
Reporter Brief
Briefing Note
Custom scenario

This scenario shows a $-9.37B modeled deficit for the current budget year, in line with the budget anchor. The modeled break-even WTI is $74.3/bbl.

Top driver
Largest modeled contribution versus budget
WTI $0.00B
Live feeds
Waiting for first refresh
0/6
Alberta Budget Terminal briefing
Accessed: 6/10/2026, 4:54:30 PM
Scenario: Custom scenario
Modeled 2026–27 balance: $-9.37B (modeled deficit).
Variance versus budget anchor: in line with the budget anchor.
Break-even WTI: $74.3/bbl.
Largest modeled driver versus budget: WTI $0.00B.
Assumptions: WTI $60.50/bbl; light-heavy differential $13.00/bbl; USD/CAD 73.00 US cents per C$; natural gas $3.00/GJ; 10-year Canada yield 3.20%; income proxy 4.10%.
Live inputs active: 0 of 6. Last refresh: not refreshed.
Source note: Alberta Budget Terminal model inputs and linked source pages.
Cite as a modeled scenario from https://www.abbudgetterminal.ca, not as an official Government of Alberta forecast.
Actuals Desk
Fiscal Year To Date
Actual vs model
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Enter published revenue and expense to compare actuals.
Revenue
Actual / projected / variance
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$18.64B
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Expense
Actual / projected / variance
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$20.98B
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Balance
Actual / projected / variance
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$-2.34B
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Projection is straight-lined to the selected fiscal period from the current annual scenario.
Assumptions
Sources And Model Inputs
Fiscal base
Budget year
Published budget anchor
2026–27
Base revenue
Revenue assumption
$74.55B
Base expense
Includes $2.00B contingency
$83.92B
Base balance
Starting modeled position
$-9.37B
Input sources
WTI oil price
Base $60.50 · +$0.68B per $1 WTI
Unavailable
OilPrice.com WTI quoteWaiting for first live refresh
Light-heavy differential
Base $13.00 · -$0.67B per $1 wider differential
Unavailable
OilPrice.com WTI/WCS differentialWaiting for first live refresh
Exchange rate
Base 73.00¢ · -$0.44B per 1 US cent stronger C$
Unavailable
Bank of Canada USD/CADWaiting for first live refresh
Natural gas reference price
Base $3.00 · +$0.015B per C$0.10/GJ
Unavailable
Alberta natural gas reference priceWaiting for first live refresh
10-year Canada bond yield
Base 3.20% · -$0.442B per 1 percentage point
Unavailable
Bank of Canada 10-year yieldWaiting for first live refresh
Primary household income growth
Base 4.10% · +$0.25B per 1 percentage point
Unavailable
Alberta average weekly earnings proxyWaiting for first live refresh
Feed Health
Session Notes
Backend
/api/live-inputs
Live inputs
Refresh
Waiting for backend
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Method
Model Notes
Alberta's published fiscal assumptions form the base case. Live WTI, spread, FX, gas, rates, and an earnings-based tax proxy shift the modeled balance around that anchor.
Built as a polished monitoring interface: essential signals first, scenario tools second, and fewer distractions around the core chart.