Fewer distractions, sharper hierarchy, with a blend of live market inputs with the government's 2026–27 fiscal model.
Balance
$-9.37B
Modeled deficit
Break-even WTI
$74.3
Dynamic fiscal threshold
Live inputs
0
0 live inputs active
WTI
Live
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Waiting for feed
Light-heavy
Live
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Waiting for feed
USD/CAD
Live
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Waiting for feed
Nat gas
Live
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Waiting for feed
10Y
Live
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Waiting for feed
Income proxy
Live
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Waiting for feed
Scenario Desk
Input Controls
WTI oil (US$/bbl)
Main revenue lever. Each +$1 WTI adds about $0.68B to the 2026–27 balance.
Manual fallback
60.50
40110
Light-heavy differential (US$/bbl)
A wider differential hurts the balance.
Manual fallback
13.00
820
Exchange rate (US¢ per C$)
A stronger Canadian dollar reduces the modeled balance.
Manual fallback
73.00¢
68¢78¢
Natural gas (C$/GJ)
Smaller lever, but directionally positive when gas rises.
Manual fallback
3.00
1.55
10-year Canada bond (%)
Higher rates raise debt servicing pressure.
Manual fallback
3.20%
2%5.5%
Primary household income growth (%)
Live mode uses Alberta average weekly earnings growth as a tax-base proxy.
Manual fallback
4.10%
2%7%
Market Engine
Balance Curve
Current balance
Variance vs budget $0.00B
$-9.37B
Budget anchor
WTI sensitivity +$0.68B per $1
$60.50
Last refresh
0 live inputs active
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Attribution
Impact Ladder
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Historical Estimate
Fiscal Position Since 2025
Historical source data is still sparse, so the estimated fiscal-position series is not available yet.
Overview
Fiscal State
Current fiscal print
$-9.37B
Modeled deficitBudget year 2026–27
Revenue base
Budget 2026–27 total revenue
$74.55B
Expense base
Includes $2.00B contingency
$83.92B
Base deficit
Starting budget balance assumption
$-9.37B
WTI sensitivity
Per $1 move in WTI
+$0.68B
Feed Health
Session Notes
Backend
/api/live-inputs
Live inputs
Refresh
Waiting for backend
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Method
Model Notes
Alberta's published fiscal assumptions form the base case. Live WTI, spread, FX, gas, rates, and an earnings-based tax proxy shift the modeled balance around that anchor.