2026-06-08Modeled scenario explainer
A Smaller Lever
Oil tends to dominate Alberta's resource-revenue story, but natural gas prices still affect royalties, industry cash flow, and parts of the tax base.
The terminal includes gas so users can avoid treating Alberta's resource exposure as oil-only.
Why Gas Can Be Volatile
Natural gas prices can be affected by weather, storage, pipeline capacity, North American production, LNG demand, and local market conditions.
Because those drivers can differ from oil drivers, gas can add or subtract from the fiscal picture in different periods.
How To Read It
Use the gas input as a directional sensitivity rather than a detailed royalty forecast. It is included to show how changes in Alberta reference prices can move the budget estimate around the base case.
Use the live terminal to test these assumptions directly, or read the methodology page for the model limitations.